China exports fall more sharply in May

Thursday, June 11, 2009


The fall in Chinese exports and imports accelerated in May, dashing hopes that a collapse in the country’s external trade flows had bottomed out and pointing to the continued weakness in global demand.

Exports dropped 26.4 per cent from a year earlier, compared with a 22.6 per cent fall in April. This marked the seventh consecutive month of decline. Imports fell 25.2 per cent, following a 23 per cent decline a month earlier. China’s trade surplus rose slightly from Rmb13.1bn in April to Rmb13.4bn in May.

“The global economic situation has hit a bottom but it will still take time to recover. I expect it to take one to three years,” said Hu Yifan, chief economist (global) at CITIC Securities in Hong Kong.

“A technical rebound [in exports] may happen in November but a demand-driven rebound will not come in the short term.”

Beijing has announced a Rmb4,000 ($586bn) stimulus plan after its exports-powered economy was hit hard by weak global demand.

The stimulus packages have spurred investment in government-supported sectors such as transport infrastructure, the power grid and housing, as reflected in a 38.7 per cent rise in fixed asset investment in May from a year earlier.

This marked a larger increase than in April, when FAI rose 33.9 per cent. For the first five months of this year, investments increased 32.9 per cent from the same period in 2008, compared with 30.5 per cent in the first four months of the year and against an estimate of 31 per cent.

“Fixed asset investment in China continues to increase on the back of state-directed projects ... This will help keep the economy growing but there are increasing concerns about the amount of lending that has been required to fund the projects,” said Alaistair Chan, economist at Moody’s Economy.com.


Courtesy: Financial Times