IMF ups 2010 growth view; World Bank cuts it for 2009

Friday, June 12, 2009

The International Monetary Fund has revised its 2010 growth forecast sharply upwards, a source said on Thursday, and surging Chinese investment in May fuelled hopes of a global recovery. But underscoring the unclear outlook, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said the global economy is set to contract by close to 3 percent this year, worse than the previous estimate of a decline of 1.75 percent.

-- China investment surges, adding to recovery hopes

-- Japan Q1 GDP record low, slow rebound seen

"Although growth is expected to revive during the course of 2010, the pace of the recovery is uncertain and the poor in many developing countries will continue to be buffeted by the aftershocks," Zoellick said ahead of the Group of Eight finance ministers meeting in Italy. The IMF has raised global growth estimates for 2010 to 2.4 percent from 1.9 percent in April, a G8 source who has seen the latest figures said.

"The estimate has improved thanks to the impact of stimulus measures taken in recent months," said the source, who had access to an IMF briefing note, containing the figures, prepared for the G8 meeting this weekend. Global data has given increasing signals of a rebound from the deepest recession in six decades, driving stock markets sharply higher from a March trough.

However, financial markets remain concerned that huge government spending and central bank cash injections, led by the United States but mirrored in Europe and Japan, will spark inflation and undercut any budding rebound. Analysts also expect job losses to remain high even as the economy begins to recover, as companies remain wary of hiring.

A record slump in Japan's first quarter GDP also highlighted expectations that any rebound would be slow, and European officials said jobs would lag any return to growth. "The (global) economy should start to turn into positive territory somewhere between the end of this year and the middle of next year," European Central Bank policymaker Christian Noyer told Hong Kong businessmen on Thursday.

China has sought to cushion the blow from falling exports with a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus plan. Data showed annual growth of fixed asset investment in Chinese urban areas accelerated to 32.9 percent in the January-May period from 30.5 percent in the first four months of the year, suggesting the stimulus is working.

Underpinned by this optimism, commodity-related stocks in Asia rose for a third straight day while oil prices extended gains to seven-month highs. The International Energy Agency upgraded its 2009 world oil demand forecast for the first time in almost a year, saying 2009 demand would fall to 83.3 million barrels per day, a less steep decline than previously forecast.

China's need for government pump-priming was underlined by May customs data that showed exports fell 26.4 percent on the year, while imports fell 25.2 percent, resulting in a trade surplus of $13.4 billion, compared with $13.1 billion in April and $18.6 billion in March.

Meanwhile, Japan's economy contracted a revised 3.8 percent in the first three months of the year, less than the initial 4.0 percent estimate, but still the fastest pace since World War Two. Weak capital spending and personal consumption are expected to remain a drag.



Courtesy: BRecorder