Friday, June 19, 2009
TOKYO: Japanese manufacturers have grown much less gloomy about business over the last month, a Reuters poll showed, but consumer reluctance to spend has reinforced concerns the recovery from a deep recession will be slow. The survey may point to a healthy rebound in the quarterly Bank of Japan tankan survey due out on July 1 from a record low hit in the first quarter, when businesses were reeling due to sliding global demand and a severe squeeze in corporate funding.
But any improvement would come from a very low base and is unlikely to prompt the BoJ into ending its unconventional steps aimed at easing corporate funding strains, analysts say. "Business sentiment may improve sharply and capital spending plans may be revised up in the BoJ tankan," said Naoki Iizuka, senior economist at Mizuho Securities.
Signs that the worst of the recession has passed have led to a global debate about when policy makers should cut stimulus spending and exit the unconventional measures they implemented in the eye of the global financial storm. Rising exports and industrial output have fuelled talk that the world's No 2 economy is over the worst, and that fed into a much higher reading in the Reuters Tankan for both manufacturers and the service sector.
Manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect conditions to improve more in the next three months, the survey showed, but the upbeat tone is partly due to government stimulus spending at home and abroad, raising questions about whether demand for Japanese goods will last.
The Reuters Tankan's index of manufacturer sentiment rose 19 points from May to minus 50, and was up 28 points from a record low hit three months ago. The headline figure has around a 95 percent correlation with the influential BoJ tankan. Confidence among non-manufacturers stood at minus 31 in the Reuters survey, up from a record low of minus 44 in May and 6 points up from three months ago.
(Reuters)
TOKYO: Japanese manufacturers have grown much less gloomy about business over the last month, a Reuters poll showed, but consumer reluctance to spend has reinforced concerns the recovery from a deep recession will be slow. The survey may point to a healthy rebound in the quarterly Bank of Japan tankan survey due out on July 1 from a record low hit in the first quarter, when businesses were reeling due to sliding global demand and a severe squeeze in corporate funding.
But any improvement would come from a very low base and is unlikely to prompt the BoJ into ending its unconventional steps aimed at easing corporate funding strains, analysts say. "Business sentiment may improve sharply and capital spending plans may be revised up in the BoJ tankan," said Naoki Iizuka, senior economist at Mizuho Securities.
Signs that the worst of the recession has passed have led to a global debate about when policy makers should cut stimulus spending and exit the unconventional measures they implemented in the eye of the global financial storm. Rising exports and industrial output have fuelled talk that the world's No 2 economy is over the worst, and that fed into a much higher reading in the Reuters Tankan for both manufacturers and the service sector.
Manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect conditions to improve more in the next three months, the survey showed, but the upbeat tone is partly due to government stimulus spending at home and abroad, raising questions about whether demand for Japanese goods will last.
The Reuters Tankan's index of manufacturer sentiment rose 19 points from May to minus 50, and was up 28 points from a record low hit three months ago. The headline figure has around a 95 percent correlation with the influential BoJ tankan. Confidence among non-manufacturers stood at minus 31 in the Reuters survey, up from a record low of minus 44 in May and 6 points up from three months ago.
(Reuters)
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